New CBRT governor Kavcioglu was on the wires a couple of times last week reiterating that there will be no change to the CBRT’s policy stance. At the margin this is positive for TRY, however I expect to see a return to easy monetary policy in the near future. Flow…

The replacement of CBRT Governor Agbal indicates a return to easy money policies in Turkey, as is very negative for Turkish asset markets. The replacement of Naci Agbal is the first step in a return to easy money policies in Turkey, which will push USDTRY to new highs. The return…

I was going to write a normal longform piece, but this headline now overwhelms anything else going on in Turkey. An unbelievably negative bit of news, with new all-time highs in USDTRY to be seen within the next few weeks. …

The market is testing the CBRT, as doubts are increasing about the credibility of their hawkish rhetoric. They should hike on Thursday, and if they don’t they will be forced to hike on 15th April. Flows data showed a small reduction in local FX deposits and continued flat flows from…

Summary: Another high CPI print with PPI, CPI, and Core CPI all overshooting. The pressure continues to rise on the CBRT to raise rates at their 18th March meeting, with 50bps not enough to assuage market concerns about their credibility. President Erdogan announced the Human Rights Action Plan. As expected…

Summary: There were reports, later confirmed by an AKP member, that Berat Albayrak may be making a comeback to the cabinet in a reshuffle in March, with positions as Energy or Foreign Minister mooted. The market viewed this as a negative, given the economically ruinous policies Mr. …

Summary: CBRT left rates unchanged, and the statement is virtually identical to the one after the January meeting. It looks like the CBRT might be on hold for quite a while. Flow data showed that locals had bought $2.2bn of FX and gold last week. This highlights the continued struggle…

Summary: Positive data showing that locals had sold $2.1bn of FX and gold last week, bringing the two week sales to $3.2bn. Against this foreign flows were around flat for the fourth week in a row. More statements were made this week regarding the S-400s, as well as the US…

Summary: Pay 1y1y TRY cross-currency as a risk-off hedge that pays you to hold it 2. Paid 1y1y TRY cross-currency rolls 358bp into 1y TRY cross currency (12.63% vs 16.21%) 3. Trade works as a standalone trade, as a hedge to short USDTRY, or as a hedge allowing you to…